By Stanley K. Smith
This booklet specializes in the method and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main established info assets and alertness thoughts for 4 kinds of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural versions, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the improvement of review standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection equipment and can pay specified consciousness to the original difficulties that signify small-area projections. The authors offer useful assistance to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others referred to as directly to build country and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing particular populations, precise situations, and insufficient or unreliable information. They describe options for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., college enrollment, households). They speak about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context within which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for choice making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This accomplished e-book will supply readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main general inhabitants projection equipment, but additionally of the numerous complicated concerns affecting their development, interpretation, evaluate, and use.
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Extra resources for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
4, central rates can be converted into probabilities when constructing life tables. The term rate is used very loosely in demography, as it is elsewhere (Newell 1988, p. 7). Many measures called rates are really ratios. A growth rate, for example, is a ratio of population change over a time period to the population at the beginning of the time period. It is not a rate in a probabilistic sense because an area’s growth comes not only from the population of the area itself, but from other populations as well.
Chinese, Filipino, and Samoan). In addition, the population is often classified as Hispanic or non-Hispanic. It should be noted that “Hispanic” is an ethnic category, not a racial category; consequently, people are classified both by race and by Hispanic origin. The 2000 census introduced an important change in the collection of racial data. 1 Demographic Concepts 25 than one racial category; prior to that time, they could list only a single category. The 2000 census thus included a large number of potential multi-race combinations, in addition to the five single-race categories.
In demography, rates are generally based on a period of 1 year. Although the concept of a rate is clear, it is often difficult or impossible to develop an exact measure of the population at risk to the occurrence of an event. For example, only females in their childbearing years are exposed to the risk of giving birth. In addition, some die during the year and—for any given area—some move away while others move in. How can the population exposed to the risk of giving birth be measured? Strictly speaking, the population at risk to the occurrence of an event is the number of person-years of exposure experienced by the population during the period under consideration (Newell 1988, p.
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith